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US Buy Now, Pay Later Loan Trends, 5th Edition

Publisher Packaged Facts
Published Nov 18, 2025
Length 88 Pages
SKU # LA20580236

Description

The Packaged Facts report US Buy Now, Pay Later Loan Trends, addresses the US market for “Pay in 4” and interest-based loans offered by leading BNPL fintechs. This report relies on proprietary, trended data to identify key users, and how usage factors, credit card cross-use, risk profiles, mobile usage, product innovations influence BNPL usage. This includes generational “deep cuts” such as generation by gender, income, race/ethnicity, and credit score. It also includes market sizing for the BNPL market, by key players.

Table of Contents

88 Pages
CHAPTER 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
SCOPE OF REPORT
REPORT METHODOLOGY
Consumer Survey Methodology
Secondary Research Methodology
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Buy Now, Pay Later Payment Value Market Size and Forecast
Growth Drivers
BNPL Use and Usage Frequency
The BNPL User Risk Connection
The BNPL vs. Credit Card Riddle
The BNPL Mobile Connection
BNPL Usage Factors
BNPL User Interest in Broader Provider Offerings
Why Holdouts Do Not Use BNPL
BNPL Fintech Providers
Affirm
Afterpay
Klarna
PayPal
CHAPTER 2: MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
BUY NOW, PAY LATER PAYMENT VALUE MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Who’s Laughing Now? Providers Transition to Profitability And Growth
In 2025, Leading Fintech BNPL Platforms Will Process $259 Billion Globally
Table 2-1. Global BNPL Payment Value, 2019-2025 (billion dollars and percent)
US BNPL Market Share Has More Than Tripled—and Growth Is Accelerating
Table 2-2. Global BNPL Payment Value: International vs. US Value Growth, 2019-2025 (billion dollars and percent)
Affirm Tops BNPL Fintech Competitors in US Payment Value, Followed By Klarna
Table 2-3. US BNPL Payment Value: Afterpay, Affirm, Klarna, PayPal, Sezzle, and Zip, 2019-2025 (billion dollars and percent)
Forecast: Sunny, With One Big Cloud
Table 2-4. US BNPL Payment Value Forecast, 2025-2027 (billion dollars and percent)
US Buy Now, Pay Later Loan Trends, 5th Edition
ii November 2025 © Packaged Facts
CHAPTER 3: GROWTH DRIVERS
PENETRATING NEW CATEGORIES AND CHANNELS
Retail Category Expansion
Table 3-1. Percentage of Klarna Purchase Transaction Volume by Category, US, Germany, and Sweden, 2024 and Q2 2025
Expanding Checkout Reach
Riding Card Rails Into More Locations
FRAMING BNPL WITHIN FINTECH FINANCIAL SERVICES ECOSYSTEMS
BNPL Products at Leading Providers Do Not Exist in a Vacuum
PROVIDING CUSTOMER REWARDS
BNPL Users Have Rewards Credit Cards, Too
Table 3-2. Credit Card Usage, Cards Owned, Primary Card Is Rewards Card by All Adults, Active BNPL Users, and Non-BNPL Users, October 2024
KEEPING CREDIT CARD ISSUERS ON THEIR TOES
Table 3-3. US Buy Now, Pay Later Service Customer Satisfaction Index, Rankings for Legacy Card Issuers and BNPL Fintechs, February 2025
CHAPTER 4: BNPL USE AND USAGE FREQUENCY
USAGE TRACKS AT 25% OF POPULATION
Neck-and-Neck Prevalence: Pay in 4 vs. Interest-Based Loans
Table 4-1. Buy Now, Pay Later Pay in 4, Interest-Based, and Combined Usage in the Past 12 Months, September 2025
USAGE: ASK GEN Z AND MILLENNIALS
Table 4-2. Buy Now, Pay Later Pay in 4, Interest-Based, and Combined Usage in the Past 12 Months by Generation, September 2025
Survey Deep Cuts by Generation: Do Results Reveal a Legacy Banking Nightmare?
Table 4-3. Buy Now, Pay Later Pay in 4, Interest-Based, and Combined Usage in the Past 12 Months: Gender by Generation, September 2025
Table 4-4. Buy Now, Pay Later Pay in 4, Interest-Based, and Combined Usage in the Past 12 Months: Race/Ethnicity by Generation, September 2025
Table 4-5. Buy Now, Pay Later Pay in 4, Interest-Based, and Combined Usage in the Past 12 Months: HH Income by Generation, September 2025
USAGE FREQUENCY NEEDS A BOOST
Less Than 10% of BNPL Users Pay via BNPL More Than 10 Times Annually
Table 4-6. Buy Now, Pay Later Pay in 4 vs. Interest-Based Usage Frequency in the Past 12 Months, September 2025
Debit Card and Credit Card Usage Frequency Remains Much Higher
Table 4-7. Buy Now, Pay Later Pay in 4 vs. Interest-Based Usage Frequency in the Past 12 Months, September 2025
Survey Deep Cuts by Generation: Using and Using Frequently Are Different Things
Table 4-8. Buy Now, Pay Later Active Users: Usage Frequency in the Past 30 Days by Generation, October 2024
US Buy Now, Pay Later Loan Trends, 5th Edition
November 2025 © Packaged Facts iii
Table 4-9. Buy Now, Pay Later Active Users: Usage Frequency in the Past 30 Days: Gender by Generation, October 2024
Table 4-10. Buy Now, Pay Later Active Users: Usage Frequency in the Past 30 Days: Gender by HH Income, October 2024
USAGE BY BRAND
PayPal Tops Our Survey List
Table 4-11. Buy Now, Pay Later Usage in the Past 12 Months by BNPL Provider, September 2025
CHAPTER 5: THE BNPL USER RISK CONNECTION
CREDIT SCORES STRONGLY CORRELATE TO BNPL USAGE
Table 5-1. Buy Now, Pay Later Pay in 4, Interest-Based, and Combined Usage in the Past 12 Months by Generation, September 2025
Diary of Consumer Payment Choice Confirms Our Findings
Table 5-2. Adults Who Paid via BNPL in the Past 30 Days: Indexed Usage by Credit Score, October 2024
Many Fully Banked Folks Are BNPL Fans—but Usage Tilts to the Underbanked
Table 5-3. Adults Who Paid via BNPL in the Past 30 Days: Indexed Usage by Banked Status, October 2024
RISKIER CONSUMERS ARE HEAVIER BNPL USERS
Table 5-4. BNPL Usage Frequency in the Past 30 Days by Credit Score, October 2024
Table 5-5. BNPL Usage Frequency in the Past 30 Days by Banked Status, October 2024
CHAPTER 6: THE BNPL VS. CREDIT CARD RIDDLE
OVERVIEW
Yes, BNPL Is Siphoning Spend from Credit Cards—at Least We Think So
Next to Credit Cards, BNPL Payment Value Is a Drop in Bucket: But That Misses the Point
Table 6-1. US Payment Value Comparison: Consumer Credit Cards vs. BNPL, 2024 (billion dollars and percent)
BNPL USERS AND CREDIT CARD USERS HAVE MORE IN COMMON THAN YOU THINK
BNPL Users Have Credit Cards, Too
Table 6-2. Credit Card Users: All Adults, Active BNPL Users, and Non-BNPL Users, October 2024
Table 6-3. Credit Card Usage, Cards Owned, Primary Card Is Rewards Card by All Adults, Active BNPL Users, and Non-BNPL Users, October 2024
BNPL Users Incur More Credit Card Debt Than Credit Card-Only Consumers
Table 6-4. Total Credit Card Debt by All Adults, Active BNPL Users, and Non-BNPL Users, October 2024
Table 6-5. Types of Credit Card Fees Incurred by Active BNPL Users and Non-BNPL Users, October 2024
Higher Credit Risk Among BNPL Users Explains Why
Table 6-6. Credit Score Segmentation: Credit Card Users Who Use BNPL vs. Credit Card-Only Users, October 2024
Table 6-7. Adults Who Paid via BNPL in the Past 30 Days: Indexed Usage by Credit Score, October 2024
US Buy Now, Pay Later Loan Trends, 5th Edition
iv November 2025 © Packaged Facts
Table 6-8. Bank Account Access and Banked Status by BNPL/Credit Card Usage, October 2024
CHAPTER 7: THE BNPL MOBILE CONNECTION
MOBILE PAYMENT ADOPTION AMONG BNPL USERS IS HIGH
Table 7-1. Mobile Payment, P2P Payment, and In-Store Payment Adoption: All Adults vs. Active BNPL Users, October 2024
PHONE-BASED PAYMENT METHODS
The App Is Where It’s At
Table7-2. Ways In-Person Phone Payers Have Paid in Past 12 Months: All Adults vs. Active BNPL Users, October 2024
BNPL USERS ARE DIGITALLY SAVVY PAYERS REGARDLESS OF AGE
Table 7-3. Mobile Payment and In-Store Payment Adoption: Active BNPL Users vs. Non-Users by Generation, October 2024
MOBILE PAYMENT BRANDS CAN DRIVE BNPL UPTAKE
PayPal Is in the Driver’s Seat
Table 7-4. Mobile Payment Brands Used in Past 12 Months: All Adults vs. Active BNPL Users, October 2024
Mobile Payment Brand Usage, by Generation
Table 7-5. Mobile Payment Brands Used in Past 12 Months: Active BNPL Users by Generation, October 2024
MOBILE FUNDING METHODS
Money Stored in Mobile Apps Represents 31% of Mobile Payment Funding
Table 7-6. Mobile Funding Method Amounts Used to Make Mobile Payments: All Adults vs. Active BNPL Users, October 2024
CHAPTER 8: BNPL USAGE FACTORS
TOP USAGE RATIONALES
Budgeting, Debt, and Cash Flow Rationales Top the List
The Specter of Loan Stacking Looms
Table 8-1. Reasons for Using BNPL, September 2025
Respondent Credit Scores Heavily Influence Usage Rationales
Table 8-2. Reasons for Using BNPL by Credit Score, September 2025
IMPORTANCE OF BNPL FEES, TERMS, AND BENEFITS
Don’t We All Love Ease And Simplicity?
Table 8-3. Most Important Fees, Terms, and Benefits Factors in Choosing a BNPL Provider, September 2025
FINANCIAL PROTECTION AND CASH FLOW CONSIDERATIONS PREDOMINATE
Table 8-4. BNPL Financial and Rewards Attitude Statements, September 2025
CHAPTER 9: BNPL USER INTEREST IN BROADER PROVIDER OFFERINGS
FINANCE AND COMMERCE PRODUCTS TURN THE FLYWHEEL
Strong Interest in Signing Up for High-Interest Savings Accounts
US Buy Now, Pay Later Loan Trends, 5th Edition
November 2025 © Packaged Facts v
Cell Phone Plan Discounts Resonate—and Are a Smart Move
Next Step After Debit: Credit Cards Are a Natural Evolution
Table 9-1. BNPL User Interest in Finance and Commerce Products by Product, September 2025
BNPL Users with Good Credit Seek BNPL Provider Credit Cards
Table 9-2. BNPL User Interest in Finance and Commerce Products by Product and Credit Score, September 2025
CHAPTER 10: WHY HOLDOUTS DO NOT USE BNPL
WHY DO I NEED IT?
Transactors Don’t Think They Do
Table 10-1. Why Non-Users Say They Do Not Use BNPL, September 2025
CHAPTER 11: BNPL FINTECH PROVIDERS
AFFIRM
The Largest BNPL Provider in the US—and Profitable, Too
Focused on the Median Consumer with an Eye on High-Income Prospects
Affirm Payment Value Growth Accelerates in 2024 and 2025
Table 11-1. Affirm BNPL Payment Value: International vs. US Payment Value, 2019-2025 (billion dollars and percent)
Strong, Sustained Customer Count, Engagement, and Payment Value Growth
Table 11-2. Affirm Payment Value, Customers, Transactions, and Per-Customer Metrics, 2020-2024 (billion dollars, million persons, and million transactions)
Affirm-Originated Transaction Growth Keep Pace with POS Transactions
Table 11-3. Affirm Transactions, by POS Mix, 2021-2024 (million transactions)
Interest-Based Loan Share Continues to Grow
Table 11-4. Affirm GMV by Product, 2020-2024 (billion dollars and percent)
Interest Income and Card Network Income are Revenue Drivers
Table 11-5. Affirm Revenue by Type, 2020-2024 (million dollars and percent)
Affirm Card Drives Direct-to-Consumer Segment Growth
Table 11-6. Affirm Card Payment Value, 2022-2025 (million dollars)
Table 11-7. Affirm Direct-to-Consumer Payment Value: Affirm Card vs. Marketplace, 2022-2025 (million dollars and percent)
The Financial Services Play: A Nascent-Stage Endeavor
Key Retailer Partnerships are a Strength and Weakness
AFTERPAY
Finding A Home Within Block’s Ecosystem Will Drive Afterpay Growth
Cash App Aims to Bank its Base
Table 11-8. Cash App Active Users and Quarterly Inflows, 2025 (billion dollars, dollars, and million users)
Cash App Has Spawned a Youth Movement That Any Legacy Bank Would Envy
Afterpay BNPL Payment Value Is Growing Steadily
US Buy Now, Pay Later Loan Trends, 5th Edition
vi November 2025 © Packaged Facts
Table 11-9. Afterpay BNPL Payment Value: International vs. US Payment Value, 2019-2025 (billion dollars and percent)
Afterpay Is Part of Cash App’s $195 Billion Commerce Payment Value Engine
Table 11-10. Block, Inc. Commerce Payment Value: Cash App Card, Afterpay, Cash App for Business, and Cash App Pay, 2025 (billion dollars and percent)
Afterpay on Cash App Card: Taking BNPL to the Next Level
KLARNA
Klarna Payment Value Rockets Forward in the US
Table 11-11. Klarna Payment Value: International vs. US Payment Value 2019-2025 (billion dollars and percent)
Pay Later Financing Share Has Grown Over Time
Table 11-12. Klarna Payment Value by Product, 2022-2024 (billion dollars and percent)
Klarna Card: A Hit in the Making
Revenue, Profit, and Risk, Oh My!
PAYPAL BNPL
OG Fintech Came Late to the “Pay in 4” Game; But It’s Got Game Now
US Growth Lags Global Performance
Table 11-13. PayPal BNPL Payment Value: International vs. US Payment Value, 2020-2025 (billion dollars and percent)
APPENDIX
SURVEY METHODOLOGY
METHODOLOGY
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