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Analysis by Region - Europe

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Mar 29, 2022
Length 6 Pages
SKU # OFE17063578

Description

Analysis by Region - Europe

Ukraine's economy has likely contracted by about 40%-45% in the one month since Russia's invasion compared to pre-crisis levels. Our forecast for the rest of the year depends crucially on how long the fighting will last. Judging by Russia’s stalled offensive, we base our forecast on the assumption that the acute phase of the war will not extend beyond May, at which point a tentative recovery may begin. In this baseline scenario, we see GDP contracting by 34.1% in 2022 before recovering by 4.3% in 2023. There are both upside and downside risks to this forecast.

Table of Contents

6 Pages
Ukraine: Russia's invasion causes economic collapse
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments
Policy and politics
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