We have slashed our GDP growth forecasts for Venezuela by 8.5ppts to a 5% y/y contraction in 2025 and by 7.2ppts to a 3.3% y/y decline in 2026. The downgrades reflect the US's decision to end permission for foreign energy firms to operate in the country by May 27 and charge a 25% "secondary tariff" on nations buying Venezuelan oil. Our previous baseline expected a continuation of the status quo.
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