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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ukraine

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Mar 31, 2025
Length 6 Pages
SKU # OFE19906803

Description

Despite Donald Trump's efforts, a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine remains elusive, with Russia so far rejecting the proposed 30-day partial ceasefire by making it conditional on sanctions relief. Even if achieved, this type of ceasefire would be largely symbolic. We therefore base our Ukraine forecast on the assumption that war will continue through most of 2025, with a ceasefire reached by 2026. We still anticipate GDP growth of 3.3% this year, and 5% in 2026.

Table of Contents

6 Pages
Ukraine: Elusive ceasefire leaves the economy on a war footing
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments
Policy and politics

Pricing

Currency Rates
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