First-quarter industry data thus far paints a depressing picture: it indicates that the mining and manufacturing sectors have started 2025 on the back foot, following a disappointing end to 2024. A sharp decline in consumer confidence during the first quarter suggests a deterioration in the outlook for household expenditure. Given that consumption has been one of the few areas in which the South African economy has shown some semblance of a sustained recovery, this is concerning. With private sector investment still muted and without any prospects of increasing meaningfully this year, gloomy consumer sentiment presents a concern, and we stick with our below-consensus real GDP growth forecast of 1.0% in 2025.
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