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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Russia

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Aug 21, 2025
Length 9 Pages
SKU # OFE20418465

Description

We raised our 2025 GDP growth forecasts for Russia by 0.2ppts to 1% and reduced our 2026 forecast by 0.1ppt to 0.8%, owing mostly to recent GDP data revisions. In Q2, annual growth slowed to 1.1% from 1.4%. Activity is losing momentum despite the central bank cutting its policy rate by a combined 300bps in summer. Low oil prices weigh on budget revenues and limit room for fiscal stimulus, making a recession increasingly likely in the coming quarters.

Table of Contents

9 Pages
Russia: Galvanised diplomacy staves off new US sanctions
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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