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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Russia

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Jul 01, 2025
Length 9 Pages
SKU # OFE20204924

Description

We raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Russia to 1% from 0.8% following a substantial upward revision to Q1 GDP data. We also tweaked our 2026 GDP forecast to 0.9% from 0.8%. Following a sequential contraction in Q1, the economy returned to growth in Q2, but recent data point to a loss of momentum. Lower oil prices and a nearly depleted sovereign fund necessitate fiscal prudence and leave little room for fiscal stimulation. We see the economy narrowly avoiding recession if the central bank pushes on with large rate cuts in H2 2025 and H1 2026.

Table of Contents

9 Pages
Russia: New easing cycle could help avoid recession
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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