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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Mar 31, 2025
Length 10 Pages
SKU # OFE19906798

Description

We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Romania by 0.5ppts to 2.1%. This reflects our view that delays stemming from the presidential election re-run and a larger-than-expected deficit at the start of this year mean that the government will have to implement additional consolidation measures in H2 2025 to meet its fiscal targets. Meanwhile, greater global trade policy uncertainty is also expected to weigh on the outlook. However, we have only trimmed our 2026 GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppt to 2.5% given the boost to external demand from increased European government spending.

Table of Contents

10 Pages
Romania: Fresh budget challenges to drag on near-term growth
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings.
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Politics and policy
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