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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Jun 30, 2025
Length 8 Pages
SKU # OFE20204915

Description

We've maintained our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Poland at 3.3% and nudged up our projection for 2026 by 0.1ppt to 3.2%. The near-term expansion will be driven predominantly by robust domestic demand amid strong real wage growth and a ramp-up of the Next Generation EU spending. But as the external environment is set to improve only gradually, we think that the sequential pace of growth will not pick up this year. At the same time, lower interest rates and German fiscal stimulus will offer support in 2026 and beyond.

Table of Contents

8 Pages
Poland: Poland's new president will not derail solid growth ahead
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term growth outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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