We've maintained our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Poland at 3.3% and nudged up our projection for 2026 by 0.1ppt to 3.2%. The near-term expansion will be driven predominantly by robust domestic demand amid strong real wage growth and a ramp-up of the Next Generation EU spending. But as the external environment is set to improve only gradually, we think that the sequential pace of growth will not pick up this year. At the same time, lower interest rates and German fiscal stimulus will offer support in 2026 and beyond.
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