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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Philippines

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Aug 29, 2025
Length 8 Pages
SKU # OFE20418447

Description

We maintain our 2025 GDP growth forecast for the Philippines at 5.5%. While the agreed 19% US headline tariff rate has eased some uncertainty for businesses, a bigger risk comes from sector-specific tariffs on currently exempt products, particular semiconductors – these are yet to be announced. However, as the economy relies more on domestic consumption, we expect the direct impact of the US tariff hikes on overall growth to be limited.

Table of Contents

8 Pages
Philippines: Export momentum is set to soften in coming quarters
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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