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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Oct 06, 2025
Length 7 Pages
SKU # OFE20535959

Description

We expect economic growth could weaken somewhat in H2 2025, as President Trump's Liberation Day tariffs came into effect in August. While the country’s US reciprocal tariff was lifted by 1.0 ppt to 15%, we maintain our view that the direct economic impact should be muted as oil remains exempt, thereby lowering the effective tariff. The second-round effects of an oil price fallout remain uncertain. Still, Nigeria's oil economy boomed by 20.5% y/y in Q2 2025.

Table of Contents

7 Pages
Nigeria: Oil economy slides along, but headwinds are looming
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments
Policy and politics

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