Financial markets are still reeling from President Donald Trump's bold tariff move last week. Commodity prices too have come under immense pressure. Although we think the global economy is likely to skirt a recession, a slowdown will strain oil demand while the recent decision by Opec+ to bring forward a portion of their planned production increases further fuels downward pressure on oil prices. In this forecast round, we maintained Nigeria's real GDP growth estimate for 2025 as PMI figures point to robust services activity and oil production should remain solid throughout the year. Still, we concede intensifying downside risks to our outlook and we have lowered our medium-term Brent crude oil price predictions.
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