Global oil prices have come under renewed pressure following the recent decision by Opec+ to accelerate oil output increases in June. We think bearish conditions will persist and oil prices should recover gradually over the medium term. We maintain our view that Nigeria's overall real GDP growth trajectory will remain broadly intact since we think the services economy will lead the charge over the medium term. However, we slightly trimmed our medium-term real GDP growth forecasts. We now expect the oil giant to expand by 3.4% this year and 3.1% in 2026. Still, risks are tilted to the downside.
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