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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mexico

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Aug 13, 2025
Length 8 Pages
SKU # OFE20317577

Description

We've raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Mexico by 0.4ppts to 0.6%, above the latest consensus estimate of a 0.3% expansion, due to surprisingly strong Q2 GDP. However, we've nudged our 2026 forecast down by 0.2ppts to 1.6% growth, which is still above the consensus of 1.4%. The external sectors have shown resilience to US tariffs, but we think the biggest hit is yet to come, so we still see downside risks to our short-term outlook.

Table of Contents

8 Pages
Mexico: 2025 outlook improved on tariff resilience, but risks remain
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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