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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mexico

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Jul 10, 2025
Length 8 Pages
SKU # OFE20204939

Description

A slightly better-than-expected start to Q2 marginally lifted our 2025 GDP forecast to 0.2% growth and suggested the likely end to the recent spiral of downward revisions caused by US tariffs and record levels of economic uncertainty. In fact, if the economy remains resilient into Q3, we see scope for slight improvements in the outlook. We expect Mexico's GDP will rebound to 1.8% growth next year, above the consensus of 1.3%.

Table of Contents

8 Pages
Mexico: Unexpected Q2 resilience will likely fade in H2
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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