Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mexico

Our 2025 GDP forecast for Mexico remains at near-zero growth, slightly below the latest consensus estimate of 0.1% growth. The stronger-than-expected end to Q1 prevented the country from falling into a technical recession, but risks to activity in Q2 and Q3 remain tilted to the downside. We expect Mexico's GDP will rebound to 1.9% growth next year, slightly above the consensus of 1.5%.


Mexico: Recession concerns persist despite Q1 upside surprise
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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