Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Lesotho
Description
Lesotho’s textiles sector has been more resilient than previously anticipated following the initial 50% US tariff threat. Although employment in the industry declined in Q2 2025, this drop was consistent with historical trends. As a result, we expect a relatively strong economic rebound in the second quarter, supported by the reopening of the Lesotho Highlands Water Project (LHWP) tunnel and reduced US tariff uncertainty. We have raised our real GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.0% from the previous estimate of 0.5%. However, due to anticipated economic weakness from the recent trade and aid shocks, we have lowered our real GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 0.8% from the previous estimate of 1.1%.
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