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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kazakhstan

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Sep 02, 2025
Length 6 Pages
SKU # OFE20418431

Description

We've raised our forecast for 2026 GDP growth by 0.3ppts to 3.6% based on plans for a transport infrastructure upgrade, which will lift investment. We've also revised our 2025 forecast to 5.9% from 5.3% owing to activity markedly picking up pace in Q2. The Tengiz oil field extension coming onstream and the structural transformation of the economy – which is becoming a hub on the new trade route between China and Europe – will support growth in the near term. However, household credit and consumption are showing signs of overheating, justifying more monetary tightening in the remainder of this year.

Table of Contents

6 Pages
Kazakhstan: Household demand shows signs of overheating
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments
Policy and politics

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