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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Indonesia

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Dec 16, 2025
Length 9 Pages
SKU # OFE20686041

Description

We kept our 2026 GDP growth forecast at 5.1%. Policy support and state-led investment should offset a soft labour market and external headwinds, even as higher US tariffs weigh on exports. Recent activity has firmed up in recent weeks. Retail sales continued to strengthened as vehicle sales saw its pace of contraction narrow substantially. Consumer confidence also rose alongside a solid import growth rebound, with a focus on imports of capital goods and raw materials.

Table of Contents

9 Pages
Indonesia: Activity and confidence rise as the rupiah falls
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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