We've kept our GDP growth forecast for Hungary unchanged at 0.8% in 2025 and nudged it up by 0.1ppt to 2.6% in 2026. Following a contraction in Q1, we expect activity to rebound in Q2 and beyond, in line with tentatively encouraging high-frequency data. However, firms' sentiment remains subdued as consumer caution is set to keep a lid on domestic demand and weak demand from key trading partners will prevent a meaningful rebound of exports. As a result, we think average annual GDP growth over 2026-2028 is unlikely to surpass 3%.
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