We've cut our GDP growth forecasts for Hungary by 0.1ppt to 1.5% for 2025 and by 0.5ppts to 2.8% for 2026. The downside revision stems primarily from the economic uncertainty triggered by the ongoing trade war and the imposition of a 25% levy on cars the US imports from Hungary – a key export item for Hungary. While we think German stimulus will support activity, we do not expect it to be felt before H2 2026, adding 0.3ppts to GDP growth in 2027 and 2028.
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