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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ecuador

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Sep 04, 2025
Length 7 Pages
SKU # OFE20418426

Description

We have revised our 2025 GDP forecast significantly to 3.7% y/y from 1.7% y/y, and lowered our 2026 forecast to 1.8% y/y from 2.3% y/y. The upward revision for 2025 reflects stronger-than-expected domestic demand, along with solid growth in non-oil exports and increased production of primary goods. The downward revision for 2026 mainly reflects base effects from the updated 2025 forecast. The 2025 projection is above consensus, while the 2026 estimate is below it.

Table of Contents

7 Pages
Ecuador: Large growth revision after better-than-expected H1
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Debt sustainability analysis (DSA)
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Background
Economic development and structure of the economy
Policy and politics

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