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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Colombia

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Dec 18, 2025
Length 9 Pages
SKU # OFE20686080

Description

We maintain our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Colombia at 3.0% y/y, 0.2ppts above the consensus. Congress's rejection of the government's tax reform aligns with our baseline of a 6.8%-of-GDP fiscal deficit next year. Limited avenues remain for the reform to become law without amendments to suit the opposition, which favours cutting spending in place of raising taxes. For 2025, we continue to expect growth of 2.7% y/y, 0.1ppt above the consensus.

Table of Contents

9 Pages
Colombia: Tax reform rejection raises fiscal concerns
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Debt sustainability analysis
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments
Economic policy and politics

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