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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Dec 17, 2025
Length 9 Pages
SKU # OFE20686092

Description

In our last report of the year, we've lowered our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Brazil by another 0.1ppt to 1.6%. Monthly indicators point to a much sharper drop in activity momentum than the quarterly national accounts imply, adding a downside bias to near-term growth expectations. However, policy rate and income tax cuts should keep the economy growing only moderately below potential in 2026.

Table of Contents

9 Pages
Brazil: Moderate growth momentum ahead of elections next year
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Debt sustainability analysis
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Global scenario analysis
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic developments
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Politics

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