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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Aug 21, 2025
Length 9 Pages
SKU # OFE20418464

Description

A weak activity reading in June confirms Brazil's economy is clearly on a downward trend in terms of the momentum of domestic demand. We expect the national accounts release two weeks from now to flag a 0.4% q/q expansion in Q2, which will likely be followed by a contraction in either Q3 or Q4 this year, leaving a frail carry-over for growth in 2026. Our calendar year projections for GDP growth are 2.1% and 1.5% for 2025 and 2026, respectively.

Table of Contents

9 Pages
Brazil: Expect a sharp slowdown in the second half of the year
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Debt sustainability analysis
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Global scenario analysis
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic developments
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Politics

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