Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil



Our 2024 GDP growth forecast of 1.2% is 0.9ppts below that of consensus. The flat monthly GDP print for April disappointed consensus to the downside and paved the way for what's expected by us to be a series of negative surprises as data unveils the impact of devastating floods in the southern region of the country. Economic policy is about to take a more contractionary turn and will likely prevent household consumption from driving growth in the near term.


Brazil: Monetary policy will remain tight for longer
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Global scenario analysis
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Politics

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