Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil
We've raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Brazil by 0.4ppts to 3.2% to account for the more resilient momentum showing in labour market indicators. Aggregate real earnings, although cooling, will still rise over 6% this year, while households hesitate to rebuild savings despite two-digit interest rates. Together, this will likely result in a domestic demand-based expansion for 2024. We expect an extended period of monetary tightening will begin to bite household consumption more strongly next year, leading to a gradual slowdown in growth to 1.9%, in line with domestic consensus.
- Brazil: Strong labor market momentum drives GDP up again
- Forecast overview
- Recent developments
- Short-term outlook
- Key drivers of our short-term forecast
- Economic risk
- Economic risk evaluation
- Risk warnings
- What to watch out for
- Global scenario analysis
- Long-term prospects
- Background
- Economic development
- Structure of the economy
- Balance of payments and structure of trade
- Politics
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