Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina

Our GDP growth forecasts remain unchanged at 4.1% for 2025 and 2% for 2026. High-frequency data indicate that economic activity rebounded in April, with construction and manufacturing posting monthly gains, with a recovery in vehicle production. However, we think growth will moderate over the coming months after strong Q1 figures and base effects from H2 2024.


Argentina: May's inflation surprise prompted a slight forecast revision
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term growth outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risk scenarios
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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