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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Sep 23, 2025
Length 9 Pages
SKU # OFE20535982

Description

We slightly cut our GDP growth forecast down by 0.1ppt to 4.4% in 2025 and by 0.2ppts to 2.2% in 2026. We expect private demand to soften in the coming months, reflecting a sharp slowdown in real wage growth, rising real interest rates, and uncertainty over 2026 economic policy. As domestic demand and import levels adjust, a positive net trade contribution will be the main growth driver in 2026. Our forecasts remain below the consensus for both years.

Table of Contents

9 Pages
Argentina: Heading into a highly uncertain 2026
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term growth outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risk scenarios
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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