Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan

We've cut our GDP growth forecasts for Japan by 0.2ppts to 0.8% in 2025 and by 0.4ppts to 0.2% in 2026. Higher US tariffs and global trade policy uncertainty have prompted us to downgrade our projections for exports and business investment. We now think Japan's economy will barely grow in 2025-2026 on a sequential basis.


Japan: Trade policy uncertainty will limit near-term growth
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Economic policy

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