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Analysis by Region - Africa - Tunisia

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Dec 02, 2025
Length 7 Pages
SKU # OFE20650300

Description

The Tunisian economy performed well during the past year despite ongoing external funding pressures. Robust tourist arrivals, solid remittance inflows, and the central bank's financing of the fiscal deficit played a significant role in preventing the country from defaulting. It will be much the same next year as the central bank is once again called upon to step in. While the negative consequences of a sovereign default are avoided, the central bank's independence will be questioned, thereby creating upside inflationary risks. The country’s principal and interest repayment schedule should decrease quickly from here on out, so hopefully, next year will be the last time the apex bank is asked to step in to save the situation.

Table of Contents

7 Pages
Tunisia: Central bank to the rescue again in 2026
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments
Policy and politics

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