Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Description
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
The Fed told us this week that, while it slowed the pace of rate hikes, it will continue to raise rates until it is confident inflation is returning to its 2% target. Though the Fed is still aiming for a soft landing, their projections tell a different story. In fact, the Summary of Economic Projections calls for a rise in the unemployment rate that hasn't occurred without the economy falling into a recession. While the economy is carrying some momentum into 2023, we continue to forecast a mild recession starting in Q2 and the risks are roughly balanced.
The Fed told us this week that, while it slowed the pace of rate hikes, it will continue to raise rates until it is confident inflation is returning to its 2% target. Though the Fed is still aiming for a soft landing, their projections tell a different story. In fact, the Summary of Economic Projections calls for a rise in the unemployment rate that hasn't occurred without the economy falling into a recession. While the economy is carrying some momentum into 2023, we continue to forecast a mild recession starting in Q2 and the risks are roughly balanced.
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