
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
Description
We have revised down our 2025 UAE GDP growth forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 4.9%. The downgrade reflects weaker-than-expected oil sector growth in Q1. This is partly due to recent revisions by the Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre (FCSC) to national accounts data for 2010–2024 showing softer overall growth in 2024 than previously pencilled in, which in turn implies a lower base for Q1 2025. Despite weaker-than-anticipated oil growth in Q1 2025, demand confidence is strengthening. OPEC has revised up its 2026 oil demand outlook, supported by stronger activity and the expected unwinding of voluntary production cuts. We see oil growth at 5.7% for 2025.
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