We forecast UAE GDP growth at 4.7% in 2025, supported by the expected easing of OPEC+ production cuts from May. Non-oil momentum remains positive but is softening, with the March PMI slipping to 54 from 55. Rising cost pressures, weaker global demand, and increased uncertainty arising from the US tariff fallout may weigh on business sentiment. As a result, we have revised non-oil GDP growth downwards to 4.7% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026. Still, the UAE is better positioned than its peers, more business-friendly and with limited direct tariff exposure.
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