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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Mar 18, 2025
Length 8 Pages
SKU # OFE19929282

Description

We expect UK GDP will grow by 1% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, unchanged from last month. Recent data have supported our view that the H2 2024 slowdown was exaggerated by residual seasonality in the GDP data. Though we expect the pace of quarterly growth to be stronger this year than in H2 2024, growth is likely to be slightly below trend due to tighter fiscal policy, the lagged effects of past interest rate hikes, and heightened global trade policy uncertainty.

Table of Contents

8 Pages
UK: Another year of sub-trend growth in prospect
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics
How Do Licenses Work?
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