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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Jun 17, 2025
Length 8 Pages
SKU # OFE20204884

Description

We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for the UK by 0.1ppt to 1.1% to reflect a larger-than-expected fall in activity in April. We still expect growth will slow to 0.9% in 2026. Domestic headwinds, including fiscal policy being tightened significantly and the lagged impact of past interest rate rises continuing to emerge, have been supplemented by the impact of US trade policy. We therefore expect the pace of UK growth will remain weak.

Table of Contents

8 Pages
UK: Slow pace of growth is set to continue
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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