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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Aug 15, 2025
Length 8 Pages
SKU # OFE20317565

Description

We've lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Sweden by 0.2ppts to 1.2%, but continue to expect growth will gain pace to 2.5% next year. The long-expected recovery has not yet materialized, and leading indicators remain downbeat. Fiscal policy provides a tailwind for growth, with loosening in 2025 and 2026. After inflation surprised to the upside this summer, we think the Riksbank will not cut rates in September and instead wait until Q4.

Table of Contents

8 Pages
Sweden: Downside surprise in Q2 lowers full year growth
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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