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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sri Lanka

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Apr 21, 2022
Length 6 Pages
SKU # OFE17135426

Description

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sri Lanka

We have further downgraded our GDP growth forecasts for Sri Lanka by 2.5ppts to 2% in 2022 and by 1.9ppts to 2.4% in 2023 as the external debt crisis spills over to the domestic economy. The lack of foreign exchange (FX) reserves has led to a shortage of essential items, a spike in consumer prices, and a sharp currency depreciation. We now forecast the economy will enter a technical recession in Q2-Q3 this year as domestic demand contracts despite Sri Lanka's relative success with containing the pandemic. Risks are skewed to the downside as political unrest adds to macroeconomic uncertainty.

Table of Contents

6 Pages
Sri Lanka: Recession forecast for Q2-Q3 as debt crisis limits growth
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Medium-term prospects
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments
Policy and politics

Pricing

Currency Rates
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