We have trimmed our GDP growth forecasts for Portugal to 2.4% for 2025 and 1.9% for 2026, down from 2.5% and 2.0% previously. The stronger-than-expected increase in US protectionism and continued high uncertainty drove this revision. Still, our growth forecasts are consistent with Portugal continuing to outperform most other EU countries. Healthy income growth and a step-up in spending under the EU's Recovery and Resilience Facility support the outlook, although net trade is likely to weigh on GDP growth for a second consecutive year in 2025.
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