Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway

We forecast Norwegian mainland GDP growth of 1.2% in 2023 and 0.6% in 2024. The economy is stagnating as the fast passthrough of Norges Bank rate hikes weighs on fixed investment. Falling inflation and labour market tightness mean the turnaround in real income growth is imminent, but tight monetary policy will weigh on GDP growth throughout 2024 by depressing investment and by raising mortgage servicing costs, as rate cuts are unlikely until December 2024.

Norway: Norges Bank set for Long pause after December meeting
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our Short-term Forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to Key global risks
Long-term prospects
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and Structure of trade
Policy and Politics

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