Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
We forecast Norwegian mainland GDP growth of 1.2% in 2023 and 0.6% in 2024. The economy is stagnating as the fast passthrough of Norges Bank rate hikes weighs on fixed investment. Falling inflation and labour market tightness mean the turnaround in real income growth is imminent, but tight monetary policy will weigh on GDP growth throughout 2024 by depressing investment and by raising mortgage servicing costs, as rate cuts are unlikely until December 2024.
Norway: Norges Bank set for Long pause after December meetingForecast overviewRecent developmentsShort-term outlookKey drivers of our Short-term ForecastEconomic riskEconomic risk evaluationrisk warningsWhat to watch out forExposure to Key global risksLong-term prospectsBackgroundEconomic developmentStructure of the economyBalance of payments and Structure of tradePolicy and Politics