We forecast the Dutch economy will grow by 1.2% this year and 0.6% next. Trade uncertainty will make businesses reluctant to invest. Not only will tariffs lower the Netherlands' direct exports to the US by making them dearer, but they will also hit demand for Dutch-produced inputs into other countries' US-bound exports. We expect inflation to average 2.7% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, with the tariff hit to demand and energy prices helping the disinflationary process.
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