Our real GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 3% y/y for 2025. Growth in 2024 slightly exceeded expectations at 2.7%, supported by a strong Q4 performance driven by resilient consumer spending and a rebound in fixed investment, following two consecutive quarters of contraction. We think that strong household balance sheets will mean that consumer spending growth will accelerate this year even with heightened inflationary pressures; however, continued trade policy uncertainty and, potentially, lower global demand will weigh on the outlook.
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