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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Aug 31, 2025
Length 8 Pages
SKU # OFE20418434

Description

We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Latvia by 0.7ppts to just 0.5%, driven by the downside surprise in the Q1 data. However, a recovery started in Q2 and, in line with encouraging high-frequency data, we expect growth to gather momentum over the remainder of the year. At the same time, we think the residual uncertainty over the US-EU trade deal's details and weak activity in key trading partners will weigh on exports and investment, keeping a lid on the pace of expansion in the near term.

Table of Contents

8 Pages
Latvia: Industrial upturn to fuel near-term recovery
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments
Policy and politics

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