We've lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Ireland to 7.9% in 2025 from 9% previously, primarily due to a downgrade to Q1 growth. GDP is now reported to have risen by 7.4% q/q, a still remarkable rate but below the 10% reported last month. Meanwhile, we've raised our projection for 2026 to -2.6% from -4.3% last month. The Q1 growth number generates a very strong carry-over effect: even flat GDP through the rest of 2025 would result in average growth of nearly 14% in 2025. Our forecast, therefore, anticipates some payback.
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