We have lowered our GDP forecasts for Ireland to 2.6% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, from 3.1% and 2.5% last month. Our assumptions on US-EU tariffs have not materially changed, but we now assume Irish exports of pharmaceutical products to the US will soon be subject to a 25% tariff, similar to other sectoral tariffs. We estimate this will reduce end-2026 Irish goods exports by 4%. Of course, uncertainty on this and other tariff decisions is high.
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