We have raised our 2025 GDP forecast for Ireland to 3.1% from 2.2% last month, but cut our 2026 forecast to 2.5% from 3.3%. Final official figures for Q4 2024 GDP growth were a substantial upward revision, resulting in a much-improved carryover effect into 2025. While this explains our upgraded forecast for 2025, it also highlights the problems with Irish GDP, which is a flawed measure of the country's economy due to the huge volatility in the contribution of multinationals.
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