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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Apr 27, 2022
Length 11 Pages
SKU # OFE17138233

Description

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia continues to dominate France's outlook. While the direct impact on the French economy will likely be limited given the modest weight of Russia and Ukraine on France’s exports and imports, the real pain will be felt in sharply higher energy prices. Overall, we continue to expect French GDP to expand by 3.0% in 2022, and by 2.0% expansion in 2023, albeit markedly lower than our pre-war expectations. We see inflation reaching 3.8% this year, its highest reading since the 1980s. However, we think consumer prices will ease markedly next year as energy prices likely fall and turn disinflationary, and post-lockdown upward pressure on services and durable goods prices begins to fade.

Table of Contents

11 Pages
France: A re-elected Macron faces inflation, divided public, war
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

Pricing

Currency Rates
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