We have revised down our growth forecast for this year and next due to trade policy uncertainty and lower global demand. We still expect a domestic demand-led pick-up in activity, with the key downside risk being higher trade protectionism. The announced increase in defence spending won't have a notable impact on growth due to high import leakage and low multipliers, but will mean difficult fiscal choices. We expect growth of 0.8% this year and 1% in 2026.
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