We've lowered our Eurozone GDP growth forecasts by 0.1ppt to 0.8% in 2025 and 0.2ppts to 1% in 2026 in response to the US tariff hikes. Although our assumptions about US-EU tariffs have not materially changed, new US tariffs will weaken demand for Eurozone exports and will result in a prolonged period of uncertainty, hurting investment. More positively, our updated forecast now includes large fiscal stimulus in Germany, which is in part offsetting the negative drag from trade.
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