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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Aug 19, 2025
Length 8 Pages
SKU # OFE20317556

Description

We have raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Denmark by 0.6ppts to 0.7% but lowered our 2026 forecast by 1.1ppts to 0.8%. A US tariff on imports of EU pharmaceuticals looks set to be imposed at 15%, although the exact magnitude and timing is contingent on the outcome of the US national security investigation into pharmaceutical tariffs. We think a 15% tariff imposed in Q4 is the most likely outcome. This, coupled with signs that the Danish economy held slightly firmer than expected in Q2, has shifted the growth impact further into H1 2026 and out of H2 2025.

Table of Contents

8 Pages
Denmark: Pharma tariffs loom despite signs of resilience
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy and politics

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