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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Mar 30, 2022
Length 10 Pages
SKU # OFE17063661

Description

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China

After a better-than-expected start to the year, recent Omicron outbreaks will undermine China's economic recovery, in addition to the ongoing real estate downturn. While China's economy will be less impacted by the Russia-Ukraine war than Europe and some other parts of the world, the resulting rise in global energy and commodity prices, as well as expected slower global trade, will weigh on China's external demand. We expect the policy easing outlined in the 2022 Government Work Report (GWR) will be enough to support our GDP growth forecast of 4.8% for this year. But we believe the government's growth target of "around 5.5%" for this year is ambitious. We forecast GDP growth will pick up to 5.4% in 2023.

Table of Contents

10 Pages
China: Covid and Russia's war add to 2022 growth headwinds
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

Pricing

Currency Rates
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